U.S-Led west making fresh push for defusing of tension at Israel-Lebanon border. Biden’s push amid escalating, daily exchange of fire between IDF and Hezbollah. Biden’s close advisor Amos Hochstein met Israel PM, defense minister on February 4: reported by Axios.

USA along with Germany, France, Italy and UK making push for Hezbollah ceasefire. Proposal based on ‘grapes of wrath’ pact which ended Israel’s 1996 military op. Focus on partial implementation of U.N security resolution 1701 which ended 2006 war.

Is Ceasefire going to happen soon between Hezbollah & Israel?

What Hezbollah May Have to Do?

Hezbollah may have to move all its forces 8-10 km away from Israel border. This would be dilution of U.N.S.C 1701 requirement for Hezbollah to move beyond litany river. As per reports, Hezbollah has already moved its elite Radwan force 7-10 km away from blue line.

Hezbollah may have to vow not to send forces back to areas where they were before October. Lebanese army may send 10,000-12,000 troops to areas along Israel border. West may also announce economic benefits for Lebanon to appease Hezbollah.

What Israel May Have to Do?

Israel military have to stop fighter jet sorties in Lebanese airspace. Israel military may have to withdraw some forces places along border since October. Most of the troops Israel withdraws from near Lebanon may be reserve soldiers.

The tension with Hezbollah has severely hurt Israel civilians, economic activity in the North. In aftermath of October 7 attack, Israel evacuated around 80,000 civilians from near Lebanon border. Hezbollah and Lebanese authorities have also claimed death of Lebanese civilians in attacks. West’s peace push comes after Israel openly warned of rising chances of Hezbollah war

Categories: Middle East